Treasury yields are lower and flatter amid a modest risk-off tone to start the day. The European Central Bank’s Q1 bank lending survey found that Eurozone banks “substantially” further tightened credit standards for loans to businesses. In more negative news, the Treasury is now warning that the debt ceiling x-date could come as soon as June 1. The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office followed suit and shortened its x-date projection from July to early June based on lower-than-expected tax receipts so far. The Treasury’s cash burn rate is very difficult to project with certainty, and x-date projections are likely to remain fluid in the coming days/weeks. This latest projection from Secretary Yellen’s team was likely enough to spark some additional urgency on Capitol Hill and the White House, and President Biden yesterday invited top Republican and Democrat lawmakers to discuss the debt ceiling next week. On the data front, the March JOLTS report will be released later this morning. Job openings are expected to have fallen 168,000 to 9.736 million, which would equate to a 1.7:1 ratio relative to total unemployed persons.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
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