Both Treasuries and equity futures are little changed following the release of the February retail sales report. Advance sales fell 3% in February, well below expectations of a 0.5% decline and the worst monthly data since last April. The control group figure, which is used in the GDP calculation, was even worse at -3.5% in February. While these are very large declines for a single month, they were almost entirely offset by big upward revisions to the January data that was already incredibly strong. The January control group sales figure was revised higher from 6% to 8.7% month-over-month. These are indeed abnormal times. The February data was presumably impacted by the severe winter storms, and looking ahead, the direct stimulus payments from the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan should quickly filter through to sales data for March and April.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
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