A rise in weekly jobless claims and stalled stimulus negotiations are pushing Treasury yields lower and flatter this morning. U.S. equity futures are down 20-60 bps, with tech stocks leading the downturn in early trading. Initial jobless claims surged higher to 853,000 last week, nearly 130,000 more than expected as new lockdowns emerged recently in parts of the country. The November CPI report showed modestly higher than expected growth in consumer prices. Both headline and core CPI rose 0.2% month-over-month versus expectations of 0.1% growth for each, and on a year-over-year basis, core CPI was up 1.6% versus 1.5% expected. Mortgage origination is on pace to exceed the 2003 record of $3.7 trillion in 2003 according to research firm Inside Mortgage Finance. Origination reached $2.8 trillion at the end of the third quarter, with 65% of the total attributable to refinancing. The share of refinancing is on pace to be the highest since 2012 according to the same report.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
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